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“People will lose money faster on exchanges for lots of reasons,” Marantelli says. “It inherently increases spend, volatility, lots of things. And you’re playing against a sharper audience than you’re playing against at the DraftKings sportsbook.”
He compares the effect with sportsbook cash-out features, which gave customers more apparent control over their bets but may also have encouraged greater spending. The crucial difference is that an exchange customer can be facing a specialist whose entire business is identifying inaccurately priced contracts.
Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.
About Winter Star
The launch of Prediction.com comes amid a strategic integration phase following Genius Sports’ acquisition of Legend.
It coincided with the beginning of the NFL season in the US, viewed as a peak commercial period for sports data monetisation. Genius also maintains partnerships with DraftKings and FanDuel, both of which signed extensions to remain as NFL partners ahead of this season.
Citizens gaming analyst Jordan Bender wrote in a 16 Sept. note that with the NFL season now under way: “Genius should benefit from increased spending across both traditional sports betting and the emerging prediction market industry.”
How to play Winter Star
Nikos Konstakis (pictured above), president of OpenBet, described the acquisition as “a natural extension” of the company’s ongoing strategy to serve operators in the most regulated and demanding markets.
He emphasised lotteries were a pivotal focus area for future growth, saying they “remain the core focus of our growth strategy, and OmniLogic has built a strong reputation in this sector through long‑standing customer partnerships and a deep understanding of their requirements”.
Founded by Vicente Torrejón and Dávid Márk Gábor, OmniLogic has developed a reputation over more than a decade by delivering sportsbook technology to regulated lottery operators and members of the World Lottery Association (WLA).