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As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
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The pure-play prediction market-operators, Polymarket and Kalshi, emerged from Week 1 as the clear winners. On one hand, Kalshi’s market share lead narrowed over its competitors, falling to 82% for the week ended 13 September, down from 86% a week earlier.
Still, Kalshi had a nine-fold lead over Polymarket, its next closest rival. Polymarket, meanwhile, led the group with 762,000 app downloads, edging Kalshi, DraftKings and FanDuel in the category. The downloads represented a 13,509% weekly increase and 25% of total category downloads, Polymarket wrote in a statement.
Across the market, operators delivered high double-digit gains compared with Labor Day weekend, which featured a full slate of college football games but no NFL contests. Two operators, DraftKings and Underdog each saw triple-digit growth, delivering weekly increases of 125% and 119%, respectively. Three others, Polymarket, Crypto.com and Novig, saw gains of at least 30%, led by Polymarket with a weekly increase of 46%.
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Miller served on the forum for several years and was a key UK figure during a period when the Gambling Commission implemented extensive reforms to online gambling regulation and affordability checks. GREF expressed its gratitude for Miller’s contributions during his tenure.
Jean-Michel Costes has also left the board after concluding his role at France’s Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ).
Costes was involved with GREF at a time when numerous European regulators, including the ANJ, focused on tightening advertising regulations and boosting player protection frameworks. The forum thanked Costes for his dedicated service.
