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ParlayX is developing individual logins, delegated permissions and subaccounts for such teams. Other gaps include unified execution across exchanges, prime brokerage and common resolution standards.
A contract purchased on Kalshi cannot simply be transferred and sold on Polymarket, even where the two markets appear to cover the same outcome. Each exchange may also define and resolve its contracts differently, creating an additional risk for firms trading across venues.
Liquidity can consequently become self-reinforcing. Market makers gravitate towards platforms offering dependable technology and substantial order flow, while their participation improves pricing and execution for consumers.
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“The two [concerns] are the integrity of athletic competition, and how that could potentially be impacted by a proliferation of legalized sports wagering. And then the second is really the health and well-being of student athletes.“
Stevenson added that the NCAA is determined to keep local student organisations informed of key regulations.
“Even though we are seeing legalization of sports wagering, it is still a violation of NCAA rules. I do think people and member institutions really need to make sure that their student athletes are aware, so that they don’t walk themselves into any kind of issues,” she said.
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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
