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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
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“I’ll be very, very open and straightforward about it,” Weizer told analysts on Playtech’s post-Q2 earnings call. “There were certain concerns that because it is an election year, and obviously, gaming is a political issue or there were references by politicians throughout the elections about gambling.
“Given the sensitivity around that, we were kindly asked to collaborate with the government [and] with the prospective customer that we are in discussions with to wait until the elections.”
Despite the delay, Weizer declared: “I will say that the expectations remain the same to enter into an agreement and launch sometime at the beginning of next year.”
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Within the survey, none of the respondents selected AI or automation as their primary tool for managing VIP portfolios.
Instead, spreadsheets and business-intelligence dashboards each accounted for 30%, and CRM platforms followed at 24%. Only 15% used AI/automation tools in any capacity, and then only as secondary aids.
Large and demanding portfolios were highlighted as a key challenge, with 64% of managers overseeing 100 or more VIPs, while one in five managed more than 500.