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“A lot of market makers want to go where there’s liquidity,” he said, adding that platform stability and Kalshi’s investment in the financial side of its market-maker relationships were also important. “I think Kalshi is a freight train that’s just kind of running away with it.”
Aldrin monitors product changes, advertising, social media activity, app-store rankings and trading volume across prediction market operators. Patel said the objective is to connect those indicators and show how a product launch supported by advertising affects volume and market share.
Below the largest exchanges, he sees numerous operators competing for relatively small shares of a fast-growing category. “If you get 1% of this market, I think it’s a huge opportunity,” Patel said. “There are a lot of people fighting to get 1%.”
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Kugler told Spectrum “it was never his intention to provide incriminating information”. He said he had felt duped by Black Cube, and noted the person he had met with had disappeared after the report was released. He believed they had used a fake identity.
“Kugler’s position is that Evolution does not supply games to Iran. He stated that “I know we have players in Dubai”, Spectrum notes, in response to Black Cube’s claims.
Another claim made by Black Cube’s report was that Evolution had accepted wagers in virtual currencies and cash. Spectrum confirms that wagers were made by end users using crypto currencies, however it was the operator, and not Evolution accepting these bets.
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For any consumer-facing businesses, a suspension is likely existential and such appears to have been the case here. But wider implications have to be considered before the two sites are binned forever.
The Commission’s intervention followed hot on the heels of the £600,000 regulatory settlement with QuinnBet, announced eight days earlier.
Its findings contained an all-too-familiar combination of ineffective systems, delayed interventions and inadequate source-of-funds controls. One customer placed approximately 4,800 bets in one day and 7,000 the next without being flagged. Another, whose payslips showed monthly earnings of about £2,000, deposited and lost £9,000 in four days.